The economist and philosopher F.A. Hayek warned us about the limits to knowledge and forecasting. What we do know, however, based on past behavior is that some future events have a much higher probability of occurring than others. So, now for 2016:
*There will be a major disruption in the global oil market, leading to higher prices, and this is why…
*There will be another financial crisis, and global economic growth will be less than the most recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast, and this is why…
*Iran will let the world know that it has a nuclear bomb while publicly denying it, and this is why…
Happy New Year anyway.